In the past 12 months, since September 2020, the net cumulative increase in employment has been just 44,483. This is negligible -- just 0.04 million on a base of over 400 million jobs, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
May 2021 will end with double-digit unemployment rate, falling employment rate and substantial loss of employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The cumulative loss of salaried jobs since the pandemic is even larger at 12.6 million, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Casual labour, which is the type of employment provided by agriculture, yields much lower wages -- of the order of Rs 291 per day. Labour would not voluntarily shift to this lowest wage-rate sector unless it had no better option, observes Mahesh Vyas.
Indian women have education, inspiration and perspiration -- but not enough employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The return of the unemployment rate to pre-lockdown times is not worth celebrating because it is more a reflection of a shrinking labour force than a decline in the count of the unemployed, observes Mahesh Vyas.
January 2021 more than recovered the loss of employment of the past three months, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The finance minister did very well for equity market investors but not so with families, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
It is important to increase employment in general. It is even better to increase good quality jobs. Strategically, it is important to move people from farms to factories to improve overall labour productivity. It is important to improve job opportunities for women, for urbanites and for the educated. The Budget does not contain ideas to do any of this, points out Mahesh Vyas.
Those who lost jobs in December were women, graduates, post graduates, salaried employees, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The count of the unemployed mounted to 38.7 million in December 2020 compared to 27.4 million in November, registering a massive increase of 11.3 million, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
The cut in wages by companies whose operations were not shut by the lockdown was more likely opportunistic than out of business compulsions to survive the lockdown. If this is true, then it is worth wondering what kind of opportunism was this? Was it to make a quick buck or was it to use a crisis to engineer a structural change that was necessary, asks Mahesh Vyas.
'By November 2020, men recovered most of their lost jobs, but women were less fortunate: 49 per cent of the job losses by November were of women.' 'The recovery has benefited all, but it benefited women less than it did men,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
'The high unemployment rate being witnessed today is not only the highest in three years but is far more debilitating for the economy than the similar unemployment rates witnessed in 2016,' says Mahesh Vyas.
These companies provide better quality jobs and so it is particularly reassuring to see these jobs grow faster than the overall growth of jobs in India, says Mahesh Vyas.
'The cost of the lockdown so far is the loss of about 11 million jobs.' 'It is important that a fresh lockdown does not make this worse,' asserts Mahesh Vyas.
The addition of a million jobs as promised by Tejashwi Yadav would make a big impact. But the electorate needs to raise its expectations, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Keeping the employment rate from slipping is challenging. To merely keep the employment rate unchanged, the economy has to generate additional jobs. It needs to run to stay where it is, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The labour participation rate tells us how many of the working age population are willing to be employed. If this proportion keeps falling as it evidently is, it does not bode well for India's growth story. It renders all stories of a revival in the economy as a myth, warns Mahesh Vyas.
'The economic impact of this lockdown is evidently huge.' 'Its impact on the livelihood of vulnerable sections of the society is immeasurably bigger,' observes Mahesh Vyas.
'The impact of economic shocks on the labour markets is usually on the young who delay their entry in response to a fall in job opportunities,' says Mahesh Vyas.
There were 86 million salaried jobs in India during 2019-2020. In August 2020, their count was down to 65 million. The deficit of 21 million jobs is the biggest among all types of employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
'The large scale and widespread shrinking of the labour force in November, the peaking of unemployment in October and the fall in lead indicators in October and November point towards a worsening of the slowdown of the Indian economy in the third quarter of 2019-20,' says Mahesh Vyas.
The fall in the employment rate translated into a 2.6 million fall in absolute employment between December 2022 and March 2023. Most of this fall was in March 2023.
While the lockdown hit employment in all age groups, it hit the employment of youngsters who are less than 29 years of age much more. The lockdown also hit women more than it has affected men, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
It keeps getting harder every day for the government to drive its narrative that ample jobs are being created. They sound increasingly silly as they try to defend the indefensible, says Mahesh Vyas.
Governments seem to be a lot more wary of imposing a draconian lockdown this time. Some lessons seem to have been learned. So, it may be fair to assume that these lockdowns will do less harm. But they will hurt the recovery process, which is still incomplete, warns Mahesh Vyas.
The recovery seen in the increased economic activity till September or October is running out of steam. Labour statistics indicate a substantial slowing down of the economy in November, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The BJP needs to worry about the kinds of professions it has landed up glorifying -- chai vendors, pakora vendors and now guards. These are not professions that any one of its voters would like to cherish, points out Mahesh Vyas.
'People are getting back to work.' 'The worst seems to be over.' 'It is very likely that the recovery is mostly among the informal, self-employed, workers who cannot afford to be away from work for too long,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
'The 5.3% growth in wages per employee is the lowest growth in nine years,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
'Over 27 million youngsters in their 20s lost their jobs in April.' '33 million men and women in their 30s lost jobs in April,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
Urban employment rate increased to 34.96 per cent in February. This is the highest employment rate recorded in urban India since September 2020.
The biggest loss of jobs among salaried employees was of 'white-collar professional employees and other employees'. Among these are engineers including software engineers, physicians, teachers, accountants, analysts and so on, who are professionally qualified and are employed in some private or government organisation All the gains made in their employment over the past four years were washed away during the lockdown, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
'Wage earners are shrinking. In both, the organised and unorganised sectors. And, entrepreneurs are growing.' 'But the increase in entrepreneurship is of a kind that does not create salaried employment or daily wage employment,' says Mahesh Vyas.
The employment that is returning is mostly essential services required by Indian households. Most urban Indian households cannot function without a retinue of maids, cooks, drivers, cleaners, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Neither the CAA nor the proposed NRC are important enough to stake the well-being of so many or stake economic growth. Getting growth back on track is more important, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The independent institute advising the PM on jobs seems to have missed the point that the challenge is to create net additional jobs, says Mahesh Vyas.
It's high time we now turn the popular question on its head -- when there is no growth in jobs for several years, how can the real GDP grow at 7 per cent per annum, says Mahesh Vyas.
Rural and urban regions present different labour participation and employment levels. These differences also are not tuned to India exploiting its demographic dividend, says Mahesh Vyas.
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